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首页 > 电子资源 > 毕业论文 > 博士学位论文 > 博士论文列表 >
  不确定性情景下的心理预期与行为选择——一项以彩票消费为例的经济心理学研究  
  作者:王君柏    发布时间:2007-03-23     
 

导师  沙莲香  20040624 
中文关键词一  双重不确定性   
外文关键词一  double uncertainty   
论文中文题名  不确定性情景下的心理预期与行为选择——一项以彩票消费为例的经济心理学研究   
论文英文题名  The expectation and decision-making under uncertainty ——An economic psychology research based on lottery consumption

论文中文文摘 

不确定性是相对于行为主体而言的,是指行动者在决策情景下所面临的一种知识不完备的状态,而这种知识的不完备,既包括对外在事件方面的,又包括对自己在该事件上行为能力方面的,这两方面知识的不完备,导致人们在决策中面临双重的不确定性。这里的知识是指被人们所认可的信息,所以即使这两方面的信息在客观上是确定的,人们也可能没有获得,或者虽然获得了但并不认可,这样还是处于不确定性之中,对这两方面的知识完全缺乏,就处于一种完全的无知之中,所以这里的不确定性主要是主观意义上的不确定性,在于人们对内外两方面知识的把握程度以及相应的判断的形成,而不同的人对这两方面的判断往往存在很大的差异。而从价值立场的角度来看,不确定性对主体而言既具有机遇的一面,又具有风险的一面。

在现实社会经济生活中,人们的决策就面临某种不确定性,因为决策都是面向未来而进行的,人们对尚未展开的事件的知识的把握以及自己行为能力的把握,都不可能做到完全有信心,不确定性是人们决策中所面临的一种普遍情景。但在很多情况下我们之所以有确定的感觉,一方面是因为有些事件的不确定性程度比较低,即或者可以近似肯定,或者可以近似否定,另一方面是因为社会信任体系的建立(广义上的制度),对不确定性情景起到简化的作用,人们可以不必在认知的意义上对事件进行把握,也可以做到大多数情况下的选择的正确。对于前者,只有当小概率事件发生以后,人们才会对事件的确定性表示怀疑,对于后者,只有当制度化的行为模式不能适应社会经济生活,只有当人们发现例外的行为选择更好的时候,才会对制度表示怀疑,从而向一种新的制度化行为过渡,并如此不断演化下去,但制度始终只是对不确定性的一种简化处理,在“严格按照制度办事”与“实事求是”之间,在一定程度上是有矛盾的。

当前中国还处于转型时期,从不确定性的角度来看,一方面是一个不确定性自上而下的转移过程,即不确定从中央到地方、从单位到个人转移的过程,也就是从计划向市场转型的过程,由自上而下的计划向独立自主的经济决策者过渡,所以不确定性的两个方面——机遇与风险——同时下放,地方与个人既获得了机遇,同时也得自己承担风险,这就是我们通常所说的“机遇与挑战并存的时代”。另一方面,转型时期的市场机制还没有完全形成,或者说还很不完善,所以在机遇与风险之间,往往并不一定对称,部分群体可能承担了很大的风险,却并没有获得多少机遇,有的群体可能占尽了机遇的好处,却没有承担多大的风险,这样就使不确定性情景更加复杂化了。

在这样的一个转型时期,中国人如何应对经济生活中的不确定性情景,如何在机遇与风险之间进行权衡,这一权衡的心理过程,或者影响这一权衡过程的心理因素有哪些等等,都直接影响到人们应付不确定性的品质,直接影响人们在经济生活中的成败得失,从社会的层面上来说,影响到一个社会的经济增长以及稳定性。例如,有的人对机遇特别敏感,一发现有机可乘,就全力以赴地投入,而对这种投入的机会成本或风险却很少考虑,有的则相反,对风险特别敏感,总是力求有充分的把握,以致对很多机遇都视而不见,一再错过机遇的召唤。一个社会中这种不同类型的人所占的比重,往往也就决定了这个社会的投资谨慎程度,决定了这个社会的保守与进取的倾向。所以研究中国人当前在不确定性情景下的行为选择,尤其是行为选择背后的心理机制,无疑是一个很现实的问题。当人们越来越成为真正的经济决策主体的时候,对经济主体本身的研究也就越来越具有实质性的意义,尤其是对不确定性情景的心理预期,直接关系到他们的行为选择。

在不确定性情景下人们的行为选择是存在很大的差异的,有的人对不确定性一点也不能容忍,有的人对不确定性很乐意接受,甚至主动去追求不确定性,因为不确定中虽然有风险存在,往往也有巨大的机遇存在。虽然人们在相同的不确定性情景下的行为选择具有很大的差异,其中一部分人可能认为另外一部分人的行为不可理解,甚至视为非理性性行为,但是,在从行为者自身的立场来看,他们的行为选择都是有他们的理由的,甚至是深思熟虑的结果,至少在行为选择之前,他们都认为自己的行为是合理的,也就是说是与他们的预期相一致的,至少对于一个正常的人来说,二者之间应该是一致的,否则,要么不会有相应的行为,要么会产生心理上的不平衡。所以在这个意义上,行为选择的差异就是人们判断的差异,人们对不确定性情景的预期的差异,或者说人们对不确定性情景所形成的一个综合判断,这一综合判断就构成了人们行为选择的一种直接心理准备状态。

作为行为选择直接前提的综合心理预期,是经济学中产生分歧的主要领域,但经济学中预期的位置与心理学中预期的位置是有很大的差异的,在经济学中,预期只是一个基本的理论前提,在心理学中,预期是整个心理过程的结果,即一个是起点,一个是终点。在经济学中,并不研究预期形成过程本身,而只是先验地假定一种预期状态,然后以此出发形成自己的理论,无论是完全承认不确定性的凯恩斯经济学,还是走向其反面的理性预期学派,实际上都没有就预期形成本身进行研究,而只是一种假定,所以出发点不同,产生的经济学理论之间具有分歧就不足为怪了。由此可见,心理预期是连接心理学和经济学的一个重要纽带,显然是经济心理学研究的一个重要领域。

本文第一章通过对日常生活的考察,发现在不确定性情景下人们行为选择的差异很大,同时在行为者自己的立场来看,他们的行为都是合理的,作者进一步指出,在现实社会经济决策中,不确定性是具有普遍性的一个特征,并提出研究的问题,即不确定性情景下人们行为选择的差异及其心理基础。第二章则通过回顾对这一问题的相关研究,提出自己的研究视角,具体地说,对国外的研究分别从社会学、心理学和经济学三个方面进行回顾,国内则主要是20世纪三、四十年代的一些论述以及八十年代以后的一些研究,而本研究的视角是从社会心理学尤其是社会认知心理学的角度出发,考察不确定性情景下预期形成的影响因素。

第三章论述心理预期与行为选择之间的直接关系,并从对内、对外的双重不确定性的角度对不确定性情景进行分解,结合不确定性的机遇与风险两个方面,就构成了分析心理预期的一个初步模型。通过对以往相关研究成果的综合以及探索性研究,结合双重不确定性下的预期模型,作者提出影响对双重不确定性进行判断的四大类因素,即经济状况、经历、认知品质和信息呈现方式以及社会文化与知识系统。第四章则从上面的预期模型出发,讨论预期的几种理想类型,以及这些理想类型在经济生活中的表现与意义,最后通过对不确定性情景的讨论,选择彩票作为实证研究的具体实例,并对其解释力作了限制。

第五章、第六章是对作者实际调查资料以及相关的二手资料进行具体的分析,首先对实证资料做了简单的介绍,即作者自己的两次调查、中国福利彩票发行中心的一次大规模调查,还有一些相关统计资料;其次对中国彩票发行的背景以及当前的现状做了分析,指出彩民群体的一些基本特征;然后根据四大类因素分别对预期的形成进行分析。最后在第七章作出一些初步的结论并进行讨论,通过调查分析,总体上来看,彩票消费的目的很明确,那就是希望中奖、改善自己目前的处境,娱乐与社会福利的成分很小,不稳定职业群体(如农民工、个体工商户等)对彩票消费的偏好高于其它群体,而其原因主要是受知识水平、经历以及当前特定文化等多种因素的影响。由此扩展开来,进一步对转型时期中国底层社会的活力问题、不同预期类型以及理性的衡量问题、预期偏差与投资公平乃至社会投资需求的问题、结果理性与过程理性的问题等进行讨论。最后指出本研究的不足,并提出今后研究的方向,即通过追踪调查对预期进行动态的研究,由彩票情景过渡到一般生活中的不确定性情景,以及将心理预期作为经济心理学的一个重要研究领域等。   

论文外文文摘 

Uncertainty refers to a predicament of the agent when he needs to make a decision in a situation but lacks the complete necessary knowledge, which consists of information about the external situation and information about the personal ability to make a reasonable decision. The knowledge here refers to the acknowledged information of the two aspects. Even if this information is objectively certain about the situation, we still can feel unsure of it if we do not receive that information or do not acknowledge it if received. That is, we are still in a state uncertainty. Obviously, deficiency of information in either aspect can lead us to a state of uncertainty in decision-making. The lack of information of both kinds is a total uncertainty. Hence, uncertainty mainly refers to the subjective suspense of the agent on the above-mentioned two aspects and the corresponding process of decision-making, which varies from person to person. From the perspective of value, uncertainty means opportunity as well as risk to the agent.

In the real social economic life, decisions are ever made in face of some uncertainty. Since the corollary of a decision evolves itself in the future, the agent cannot be fully sure of his grasp of the newly sprouted circumstances nor of his capacity to act correctly. It is no doubt that he finds him got caught in a predicament. Nevertheless, he does feel quite sure of himself sometimes. One reason is that the degree of uncertainty of the situation is not markedly high hence he feels approximately positive or negative about it. Another reason for that is the establishment of a broad-sensed institution of the social trust system, which reduces situational uncertainty for him. With the help of it, he can make the right choice in most circumstances without the acknowledgement of all the information necessary. As for the former, we will not doubt the certainty hence our assurance of the matter until an unexpected small probability event occurs. As for the latter, we will trust the established institute as long as the institutionalized action pattern complies with the social economic life and remains better than the extra-institutional expediencies. However, once the seed of suspicion is sown, it is doomed to yield a new institutional fruit. After all, an institution can only reduce uncertainty to some extent instead of ruling out the discrepancy between the formulated action modes and the fact itself.

From the perspective of uncertainty, the present social transformation entails two uncertainty transitions. One is the up-to-down transition from the central government to the local governments, from organization to individuals. In the process from planned economy to marketed economy it has made it possible to mold an independent economic decision-maker. Along with opportunities in this transition are risks that the local governments and individuals have to face. It is virtually a time that opportunity and risk stands side by side. Unfortunately, the market economy institution has not yet been completely established by now, nor is the established part of it satisfactory. Therefore, the distribution of opportunity and risk is not totally balanced. Some people may have undertaken rather heavy burden of the risk while enjoy quite scarce opportunity. Meanwhile, another group may have enjoyed plenteous opportunity without taking the corresponding risk. No doubt this unfairness has made the scene of uncertainty more imbroglio.

In such a time what should we do to deal with the economic uncertainty and how to keep balance between risk and opportunity? The answer varies from person to person. But the psyche to make such a balance together with the relevant psychological factors do affect the choice of an individual hence his fortune in the future. Sometimes even the macro economic growth and stability are influenced. People are different. Some are rather sensitive to opportunity and are eager to jump at it once they find one. They devote themselves to making a best use of that chance and rarely consider the efforts they extend or the risk lurked in the opportunity. Some are just to the opposite. They are sensitive to risk and hesitate to grasp a chance until they are very sure of it. Unfortunately, many available opportunities may have passed them before they make up their mind. The percentages of such two types of people usually determine the macro investing prudence and the preference to aggression or conservation of a society. As more and more people become independent economic decision-makers, a study on these people, especially on their psyche, becomes more and more necessary. Therefore, it is of practical importance to study the personal choice in an uncertain situation as well as the psychological mechanism behind that choice.

The choices of action patterns vary from person to person. Some cannot bear any uncertainty at all while others are ready for it even are searching for it. For the latter, lucrative opportunities lie in the risk of uncertainty. Since people react so differently in the same uncertain situation some may regard others’ choices irrationally or even absurd. But actually, as the actor sets to carry it out, such a choice is reasonable to him and seems in accordance with his expectation. It is usually an outcome of long deliberation and remains reasonable until striking discrepancy between expectation and the actual aftermath occurs. Before this moment, for a well-balanced person, it is his best choice. Otherwise, he will either acts along another course or produces marked unbalance in his mind. In this sense, the difference between choices of action patterns is the difference between people’s judgments or the difference between their relevant prospects. Thus it can be concluded that the comprehensive judgment made a in a situation saturated with uncertainty consists of the direct psychological preparatory for further choice of our action patterns.

Consequently, such a comprehensive prospect forms one of the main disputable fields in economics. However, it should be kept in mind that the role of prospect in economy is quite different from that in psychology. In economics, it simply is one of the fundamental theoretical premises while it is the fruit of the active mental anticipating process in psychology. In another word, it is the starting line versus the finish line. In fact, no modern economics, no matter the Keynesian economics that completely acknowledges uncertainty or its opposite, the rational expectation school, has ever explored the mechanism of prospect. Instead, a supposed prospect ability of the agent is proposed. Obviously, the difference between these two schools of economics lies more in their different attitudes toward that ability than different interpretations on its mechanism. Consequently, psychological prospect mechanism, as an important part of psychology, forms a bridge that connects economics and psychology.

Through investigations on the daily life of common people, the first chapter of this paper illustrates the paradox that in an uncertain situation different people make quite different, even opposite choices, which actually are reasonable to the actors. It further points out that uncertainty is a universal feature in the real social economic decision-making process. The task of this study focuses on the difference between people’s choices and the behind psychological mechanism. Chapter Two reviews former researches on this subject and puts forward the perspective of the writer. Specifically, abroad researches are reflected from sociological, psychological and economical points of view whereas attention is paid to domestic statements in 30s and 80s in the 20th century. Contrastingly, this study pays attention to the influential factors for the formation of prospect in an uncertain situation from socio-psychological, especially socio-cognitive psychological perspective.

Chapter Three deals with the direct association of psychological prospect and the choice of action pattern. An uncertain situation is broken down in two dimensions, namely the extra-uncertainty and the intra-uncertainty. A framework of this dual-uncertainty, together with the risk and opportunity aspects, forms a preparatory model for the analysis on psychological prospect. On the basis of this model, with the help of former literature, a group of four factors affecting the judgment on dual-uncertainty is put forward. These four factors are economic situation, experience, cognitive quality and information representation form, as well as social culture and knowledge system. Chapter Four discusses the ideal prospect types along with their corresponding performances and meanings for the economic life according to the above-mentioned prospect model. Lottery is chosen to illustrate the uncertain situation. Limitations to the interpretation are referred to.

Specific analysis in Chapter Five and Six is given to massive secondhand data and data obtained by the writer. These data include information procured by two surveys managed by the writer and information from an extensive survey conducted by Chinese Welfare Lottery Center and other relevant statistical information. The background for the issuing of lottery and the status quo are also analyzed. The paper then turns to some basic features of the lottery buyers. The formation of prospect is demonstrated according to the four types of factors at the end of this chapter. Chapter Seven, the last part of this paper, produces some tentative conclusions. The writer suggests that the major reason behind the purchase of lottery is very simple, that is, the buyers pin their hope to change their fortune on winning the stake. Other reasons such as amusement and benefiting the society are rare. Another founding is that the unstable groups, such as peasant workers and self-employees, more prefer lottery than other groups. It is mainly due to their low education degree, personal experiences, the influence of the current culture, etc. Further discussions include issues such as the vitality of the bottom groups in the transformation period, the balance between prospect types and reason, prospect-outcome deviation, investment justice, social investment requirement, process rationality, rationality, etc. The insufficiency of this study is clearly pointed out at the end of this chapter. The writer also puts forward some possible themes for the future studies, namely, tracing investigations on prospect, transference from lottery uncertainty to daily life uncertainty, and to establish psychological prospect as a key sub-field for psychology.

学科名称  03法学   
专业名称  030301 社会学   
研究方向  经济心理学   
学位名称  03 法学博士

 
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